The aviation sector is way off course in its efforts to achieve net zero, but it is not too late to achieve this objective, according to a report published today.
Because of a prevailing, and flawed, assumption that a range of technologies will cut emissions, when history shows that a dominant technology will have the biggest impact, the report warns: ‘the opportunity for transformation will slip away, leaving the world to face the escalating climate impacts of a rapidly growing aviation sector, which is projected to at least double by 2050.’
Four 2030 Sustainable Aviation Goals – that must be initiated immediately and completed within five years if the aviation sector is to get on track – are outlined in the report by the Cambridge University team led by Professor Rob Miller, Director of the Whittle Laboratory.
‘Aviation stands at a pivotal moment’ he said. ‘Our five-year plan is designed to accelerate this decision point in aviation, setting it on a path to achieve net-zero by 2050.’
The report, entitled ‘Five Years to Chart a New Future for Aviation,’ will be presented today (Monday) to industry leaders in New York Climate Week and outlines the following 2030 goals:
- Reduce contrails, which are linked to warming and have a similar impact to burning aviation fuel. The report says that accelerating the deployment of a global contrail avoidance system could be achieved by setting up large scale experimental trials in regions of airspace, such as the North Atlantic. This could reduce aviation’s climate impact by up to 40%. ‘This offers potentially the lowest-cost and highest-impact solution for aviation, and provides an opportunity to make the skies bluer, as we saw the during COVID-19 pandemic when flights were grounded,’ said Prof Miller.
- Implement policies aimed at unlocking efficiency gains across the existing aviation sector, introducing more efficient aircraft, flying more slowly and closer to design range, halving the amount of fuel burnt by 2050. ‘Today the aviation sector optimises for both fuel efficiency and flexibility of operation,’ said Prof Miller. ‘If we set policies that prioritised efficiency over flexibility, there are much bigger fuel savings.’
- Reform policies behind Sustainable Aviation Fuel, where waste oil, algae and other biofuels are used to cut the carbon footprint. Turning over more farmland to grow biofuels is problematic, given the pressure on global resources. Aviation should invest more in processes that use non crop based biomass in the most efficient way together with renewable energy to make liquid synthetic fuels, for example. ‘The global supply of waste biomass is finite’ explained Prof Miller. ‘To succeed, we therefore have to choose the most biomass efficient type of fuel production.’
- Launch ‘moonshot’ technology demonstration programmes to bring forward radical new technologies such as hydrogen-powered aircraft for long distance flights, where only around 5,000 aircraft are responsible for nearly half of the aviation sector’s emissions. ‘The aviation industry is much like the automotive industry in the late 2000s,’ said Prof Miller. ‘Back then, discussions centred around biofuels as the replacement for petrol and diesel – until a moonshot technology, battery electric vehicles, revolutionised the sector.’
The report was developed by the Aviation Impact Accelerator – a project to develop interactive tools and models to examine ‘what if?’ scenarios which is led by the University of Cambridge, hosted by the University’s Whittle Laboratory and the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership.
Eliot Whittington, Executive Director at Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership, commented: ‘With focus and a step change in ambition from governments and business we can address the hurdles, unlock sustainable flying and in doing so build new industries and support wider economic change.’